Description of the Work Packages


WP1: Coordination and project management
Responsible: Wageningen University, Department of Social Sciences, Business Economics Group, The Netherlands (Partner 1)

Coordination of all scientific project work, with emphasis on (1) supervision of collaboration between WPs that strongly depend on each other, and (2) ensuring that all scientific project milestones and deliverables are reached properly and in-time. Project management to ensure that all project administrative and financial activities are carried out as required.

WP2: Spatial, structural and demographic issues
Responsible: University of Vechta, Institute for Spatial analysis and Planning of intensive Agriculture, Germany (Partner 2)

The development of a flexible and standardized database of different types of single poultry holdings (chicken, ducks, turkeys, etc.) within the participating countries (The Netherlands, Germany, Italy and Hungary) based on their geographical coordinates. The linkage of this database with geographical information systems (GIS) software to allow user-friendly communication with other databases developed within the project.

WP3: Organizational and economic issues
Responsible: Wageningen University and Research Center, Agricultural Economics Research Institute, The Netherlands (Partner 5)

The analysis of the organization and trade of various types of poultry production (chicken (eggs, meat), ducks, turkeys, etc) in different areas of the participating countries (The Netherlands, Germany, Italy and Hungary) and other main poultry producers within the EU (United Kingdom, France and Spain) with emphasis on AI relevant aspects. This analysis will be primarily focused on types of production system (cage, deep litter and free range, in- and outdoor), trade relations such as production chains, (inter) national trade particularly of life animals, and different market types. Moreover, also future trends will be studies, particularly changes in outdoor housing. The analysis of basic farm and production chain economic features related to all different types of poultry production systems present in the participating countries.

WP4: Migratory birds issues
Responsible: Istituto Nazionale per la Fauna Selvatica, Italy (Partner 7)

The identification of all species of migratory birds relevant for possible spread of Avian Influenza throughout Europe. The identification and characterization of all important locations and flying routes of these migratory birds species. The provision of a comprehensive database for further analysis.

WP5: Integration of databases in a GIS, spatial analysis and toolbox development
Responsible: University of Vechta, Institute for Spatial analysis and Planning of intensive Agriculture, Germany (Partner 2)

Integration of the databases provided by WP2, WP3 and WP4 in a single GIS-based system. Spatial analysis of poultry production of the participating countries (The Netherlands, Germany, Italy and Hungary). Modeling and simulating spatial patterns of epidemiological risks on introduction and spread of AI in densely and sparsely populated poultry production areas with bivariate and multivariate statistical methods. Development of a user-friendly GIS-toolbox for use by decision makers in the field of epizootic poultry diseases. Facilitating the use of this GIS-toolbox by WP8 to perform a qualitative regional risk assessment for introduction and spread of AI.

WP6: Epidemiological analysis of Italian data set on Avian Influenza
Responsible: : Istituto Zooprofilattico Sperimentale delle Venezie, Centro Regionale di Epidemiologia Veterinaria, Italy (Partner 3)

To acquire quantitative insight in the risk factors (RF) for introduction of Avian Influenza Virus (AIV) in AI free regions, including the role of wild birds. To acquire quantitative insight in the spatial and time depending dynamics of spread of AIV after introduction in a particular region, as well as in the RF for introduction of AIV on individual poultry holdings. To acquire quantitative insight in the effect of prevention and control measures on introduction and spread of AIV. To provide WP10 with adequate input data. Note: Given the nature of the Italian outbreak experiences, particular emphasis will be on: (1) high and low pathogenic AI strains,
(2) the impact of different bird species (chicken, turkey, ducks, etc), type of production (industrial and backyard, meat and eggs, etc), and (3) the impact of vaccination on the spread of AI.

WP7: Epidemiological analysis of Dutch data set on Avian Influenza
Responsible: Utrecht University, Faculty of Veterinary Medicine, Department of Farm Animal Health, The Netherlands (Partner 4)

To acquire quantitative insight in the risk factors (RF) for introduction of Avian Influenza Virus (AIV) in AI free regions, including the role of wild birds. To acquire quantitative insight in the spatial and time depending dynamics of spread of AIV after introduction in a particular region, as well as in the RF for introduction of AIV on individual poultry holdings. To acquire quantitative insight in the effect of prevention and control measures on introduction and spread of AIV. To provide WP10 with adequate input data. Note: Given the nature of the Dutch outbreak experiences, particular emphasis will be on: (1) high pathogenic AI strains,
(2) the impact of a more industrialized production chain-based production system, and (3) the impact of a more transparent and streamlined marketing structure.

WP8: Qualitative regional risk assessment for Avian Influenza
Responsible: Wageningen University, Department of Social Sciences, Business Economics Group, The Netherlands (Partner 1)

Identification of regions according to the risk of introduction and spread of AI (from relatively high risk to virtually without risk); this will be carried out for the 15 old EU member states, and (depending on availability of data) preferably also for the 10 new EU member states. Provision of a user-friendly GIS-based toolbox for qualitative risk analysis of AI.

WP9: Economic analysis of monitoring systems for Avian Influenza
Responsible: Szent István University, Faculty of Veterinary Science, Department of State Veterinary Medicine and Agricultural Economics, Hungary (Partner 6)

The development of a Decision Support System (DSS) for economic optimization of monitoring systems for the presence of AI, in function of regional, structural and demographic aspects, the (apparent) risk of AI presence, available diagnostic procedures and methods and their characteristics. Economic analysis of AI monitoring systems in the participating countries (The Netherlands, Germany, Italy and Hungary).

WP10: Epidemiological and economic modeling of Avian Influenza to analyze prevention and control strategies
Responsible: Wageningen University, Department of Social Sciences, Business Economics Group, The Netherlands (Partner 1)

The development of a simulation model for region specific decision making on prevention of introduction of AI; analysis of prevention strategies and measures for different regions in some of the participating countries. The development of an integrated spatial epidemiological-economic simulation model for analysis of control strategies against AI; a comprehensive analysis of current and future control strategies against AI, including use of marker vaccines.

WP11: Development of integrated monitoring, prevention and control strategies for Avian Influenza
Responsible: Wageningen University, Department of Social Sciences, Business Economics Group, The Netherlands (Partner 1)

Integration of the scientific results of WP2 to WP10 into integrated strategies for AI, including disease monitoring, disease prevention and disease control, specifically adapted to different region characteristics of various countries within the EU, particularly the participating countries. Formulation of guidelines for monitoring, prevention and control of AI under different conditions such as regional characteristics, production and trade structure and the role of wild birds.

WP12: Dissemination of project results
Responsible: Wageningen University, Department of Social Sciences, Business Economics Group, The Netherlands (Partner 1)

The main overall objective of this WP is to disseminate the project results to the widest audience of relevance as possible: policy and decision makers in the field of epizootic poultry diseases both at the level of the EU and of the member states, veterinary and animal health services and various types of stakeholders. This involves the organization of a scientific conference at the end of the project.